Model Simulates Possible Encounters Between Modern Humans and Neanderthals

News December 23, 2025

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COLOGNE, GERMANY—According to a statement released by the University of Cologne, a team of researchers has developed a model to explore possible contact between Neanderthals and modern humans on the Iberian Peninsula between 38,000 and 50,000 years ago. During this period, modern humans arrived in Europe while Neanderthal populations declined steadily and went extinct. The model was run with three parameters: an early extinction of Neanderthals, the survival of a small population of Neanderthals, and the prolonged survival of Neanderthals in the region. In all three cases, Neanderthals were highly sensitive to the alternating cold and warm climate phases known to have occurred at this time. And in most of the simulations the two populations did not meet, said team leader Yaping Shao. He suggests that the probability that the two groups mixed in the Iberian Peninsula is therefore low. If it did occur, contact most likely took place in the northwest, Shao said, since modern humans migrating from France might have reached the northwestern Iberian Peninsula before the Neanderthal population collapsed. Shao and his colleagues are planning to add information about possible food sources and perhaps a machine learning algorithm to the model for future studies. Read the original scholarly article about this research in PLOS One. To read about the first successful sequencing of a complete set of Neanderthal DNA in 2010, go to "Neanderthal Genome," one of ARCHAEOLOGY's Top 10 Discoveries of the Decade.

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